The Bitcoin (BTC) price analyst who created 1 of the industry'southward best-known prediction models thinks futures markets will non undermine the cryptocurrency.

In a Twitter contend on Dec. 26, PlanB, father of the Stock-to-Flow tool, dispelled fears that Bitcoin futures markets could negatively impact price.

'Inelastic' supply preserves BTC

"I don't see futures as a threat to #bitcoin," he summarized.

The comments follow months of speculation about futures in light of Bakkt'south offer going live in September this twelvemonth. Days after launch, Bitcoin markets savage significantly, leading to widespread theories of futures manipulating markets.

At the time, Bakkt responded past arguing that its product was aiding toll discovery. Volumes were still much lower than expected — existing futures from CME, for example, traded over $500 million per day in May. The underwhelming performance thus added to the suspicion that futures' market impact was not wholly organic.

For PlanB, all the same, Bitcoin's nature means that information technology cannot suffer similar problems to precious metals when it comes to trader speculation. He continued:

"Key banks tin futurity sell big amounts with unlimited fiat money, pushing hereafter prices below spot (backwardation), but spot markets will not follow all the way, because they run out of sellers (dissimilar gold, supply is inelastic)."

Stock-to-Flow ratio for Bitcoin, gold and silver

Stock-to-Menstruation ratio for Bitcoin, gold and silver. Source: ZPX, Satoshi&Co

Stock-to-Flow is a measure of the amount of Bitcoin currently in existence — the stock — versus the "new" coins coming into apportionment — the menstruum. The data has already highlighted that by 2025, Bitcoin's Stock-to-Menses ratio will overtake that of gold.

He has also demonstrated the extent to which Stock-to-Flow drives market value.

Futures panic unfounded?

PlanB referenced a debate with Twitter user BitcoinTina, well known as a dedicated proponent of Bitcoin.

While the latter noted various differences betwixt the cryptocurrency and gold or silvery as regards futures, in essence, the pair agreed that Bitcoin's fixed supply meant that attempts to infiltrate futures markets would neglect to produce long-term impact.

"...I was talking most spot and futures prices ('discovered' at exchanges) that in case of commodities influence producers/supply, but not with bitcoin," PlanB added in a summary of his argument.

As Cointelegraph reported, others have voiced concerns virtually futures. Those continued as recently as terminal month when Andreas Antonopoulos said cash-settled futures could depress the Bitcoin price.

Prior to that, criticism focused on futures that do not run across "commitment" of Bitcoin at all. Dissimilar with Bakkt, those futures traders need not take custody of cryptocurrency, and hence do not larn about its differences to fiat and the responsibilities those entail.

Fifty-fifty in Bakkt's example, as analyst Alex Krueger noted earlier in Dec, few participants choose to accept custody of BTC, instead of rolling over their contracts as with regular futures contracts.